A Quick Discussion On Paper 4

 

I have been trudging ahead in my studies feeling extremely isolated from my already distant MW student community.  Most of the people I got into this thing with have either passed the whole thing (looking at YOU Tom and Trevor), passed theory (all those bastards that graduated from universities with winemaking degrees like Yoann), or just got out of the entire thing entirely.  There's a lot of dead soldiers on that beach.  Frankly, the real world benefit to me passing this at this point seems to be negligible as the title has lost some of its juice and most people either don’t know what an MW is or just don’t give a fuck.  This has always been a solitary quest, but I think I will need to create a new community to at least give me the illusion that I am not digging a hole in my backyard by myself.  

I feel like I have a good working knowledge of winemaking and viticulture at this point.  Let me be clear though.  I would not recommend anyone ever give me the keys to their winery and say “have at it my boy” as that would be a disaster.  I am more at the point where I’m like an annoying food critic who can’t cook a lick that shows up for a nice meal to say “See, what they did wrong there was…” as if I could do better.  It’s shit talk with a little bit of stuffing at best.  Meanwhile for the “business of wine” I get all sorts of trade emails and try to figure out what is really going on in between the PR placed bullshit that festoons most of these industry trade sheets.  As I’m out here in Ohio on my own, I’m drawing conclusions based on talking to ex-marketing colleagues and the rare winery people that speak frankly about sales challenges.     

One of the things that has emerged recently is the public perception of Gen Z is finally starting to shift.  When writing P4 papers, even last year one was expected to say “Gen Z is health conscious and focused on the environment.  They want to buy products that speak to their values and they aren’t like previous generations.”  The tricky thing for me is I have a lifetime in marketing and I know that statements like those are all bullshit.  The problem is for me to write in a paper “that’s bullshit”, I am risking massive beatdown from markers who, despite having little to no real world marketing experience, are going to tell me with great confidence how marketing works.  If I can indulge you for just a moment, allow me to tell you how marketing works.

People buy things from people they know.  This is why there is an Applebee’s at every bullshit town in America, the same 11 movie stars are in every single movie, and despite there being 30,000 wine brands in America, almost every grocery store cart with a Mom pushing it along has a bottle of Josh chardonnay in it.  There are no surprises, thus little risk, and it required no effort to try and figure out what the options provide.  See product.  Buy product.  After that product has been purchased and consumed, it just solidifies the brand as being the safe choice for the future.  Wow… those are a lot of choices.  Maybe I better just get the Josh.  This has always been true despite everyone pretending every generational line that these new kids are just different.  They’re not.  Everybody drank Coca-Cola, ate at McDonald’s and drives an F-150.  Gen Z has the same triggers as everyone else but they just need slightly different wrapping paper.  People’s brains work the same.  That doesn’t change.

While for the last half decade self-appointed marketing gurus have been telling people what they wanted to hear, “Gen Z is VERY aligned with health and the environment!”, if you walk into a convenience store you’ll see a giant cooler filled with energy drinks with who the fuck knows what in them, vape cartridges, and Zyns.  The anti-alcohol Neo-Christian Brigade finally had to begrudgingly admit that the rise in young adult colorectal cancers might be tough to blame on decreasing alcohol consumption when it appears that this generation can’t consume “convenient to-go foods” filled with chemicals fast enough while washed down with Monster Baja Blast after ripping a flavored vape pen.  Oh, you mean that maybe a glass of sauvignon blanc or a can of beer wasn’t the death sentence you were pretending it was?  Man, I’m fucking stunned.  And the magical cannabis consumption concept where THC was a wonder drug that had no detriment appears to be wearing off as anyone that has tried to successfully engage with anyone in a service job in the last few years can testify.  I was trying to check into a hotel a couple months ago in a typical weed smelling major American city and couldn’t get the front desk people out of their haze long enough to even understand my question about the hotel parking situation much less provide me with the information.  At one point I remember saying, “Look, I can’t make this question any simpler than I am asking it.  Is there hotel parking lot this way or is it that way?”

All the data coming out now shows the alcohol consumption rate from aging Gen Z is catching up to historical norms.  The problem is the Baby Boomers are 65+, drinking less, and the replacement Gen Z generation hasn’t aged in yet.  For every 71 year old luxury Napa Cab buyer the USA market is losing, there’s a 23 year old coming onto the conveyer belt.  I don’t know how much wine you were drinking at age 23, but I can tell you my Goldschlager consumption was much higher then than it is now.  It’s a lifestyle change that hasn’t happened yet for the tail end of Gen Z.  They are going to ditch their High Noon Mango Fizz and Peppermint Zyns for something that makes them look more adult.  They just haven’t gotten there yet.  There’s a population bubble that hasn’t been sorted out.  Most of this US Market perception is anecdotal as opposed to raw data.  The anecdotal material is now leaning into “25-34 year olds buy wine for the holidays and special events, and when they do it’s trusted brands because they don’t know much about wine”.  Boy, does that sound like anyone you know, like yourself when you were 26 for example?  

Marketing is all about repetition of message to build trust so at that moment of truth in the retail outlet the consumer goes “Josh.  I want that.”  That’s it.  You just repeat the same basic idea over and over to the right people and they will buy your product.  There are plenty of 27 year old girls in marketing roles out there pretending that they have reinvented the wheel because now Tik Tok exists, but let me tell you that Tik Tok is Instagram Influencer is celebrity endorsement is TV ad is radio ad is magazine article is newspaper article is person sampling product at the Piggly Wiggly.  It’s all the same thing.  It’s a message being repeated to a target audience.  Here is the product.  Here is the story.  Here’s why you’ll be more appealing if you buy it.  Josh Chardonnay.  Hmmm… I’ll get that.

Now while what I just stated is 100% true and probably 90% of people in marketing would debate that (because almost no one in marketing knows what the fuck they are talking about and have never sold anything to anyone), I probably cannot write that in my MW exam.  People want to make this shit more complicated than it really is, inventing terms and jargon to make it appear that they have unlocked a golden truth.  I was reading a Meininger’s article which said a new consumer trend is “mission shopping” where people just go into the retail store and get what it is they came for while not casually looking at all the other options.  Hey man, I’ve got big news for you, but I’ve been “mission shopping” my entire life.  You didn’t figure anything out with your jazzy new term.  Consumers enter the marketplace and make a choice.  “We need wine.  I’ll get the Josh.  That’s popular.”  

For the last half decade wineries are tripping over themselves to sell “new” and “unique” wines to younger consumers.  Meanwhile all the data and sensible observation says “keep banging on your brand message so they remember you”.  All these clowns out there making free range biodynamic vermentino vegan pet nat and trumpeting their commitment to regenerative dry farm agriculture with rainwater catch basin bee farm cover crop natural predator wasp flax seed oil treatments better look around and notice the vast majority of potential customers are stoned as fuck looking for their zyns before they jump on their e-bike to pick up a spicy nacho ranch crunch wrap from Taco Bell.  The 2026 new wine consumer is the 1991 new wine consumer is the 1978 new wine consumer.  It’s just the cut of their jeans is different.

I’m not sure how frankly I am going to write on this upcoming P4 exam.  I don’t think the Brits can handle that shit.  They love the jargon.  They think it makes you sound like an Expert.  I suppose I’ll figure that out as I go.  For now, I need to find a new tribe and see if they can keep me in line.  The quest continues.